2013年1月17日 星期四

巴菲特是我的精神導師及偶像


巴菲特是我的精神導師及偶像

巴菲特是世界首富,它的價值投資法聞名全世界。這是大部分人對他的了解,我也不例外。我總是在書局從商業和投資類別讀跟買他的書,直到有一天,我因為未來生涯規劃的問題,實在是很煩惱,於是晃到了心靈勵志區,看到了巴菲特的傳記以及他給年輕人的忠告。經過不斷複誦他說過的話,我的心竟然平靜下來了,我覺得就像是在呼吸一樣,在這茫茫人海,竟然有人的理念和價值觀跟我這麼相近,而且還是世界首富!因此,巴菲特帶給我了自信和平靜,尤其在投資、職涯和愛情三方面。

首先,巴菲特以經營一間公司的心態做投資,他會賦予上市公司一個內在價值,並以此價值跟股價做比較,等到內在價值低於股價時,買進並持有數十年。以前,我對股市一點興趣都沒有,對於人們追求熱門股,整天買進賣出感到嗤之以鼻,也不知道我心中跟巴菲特如此相近的理念、價值觀是可以讓我成就億萬富翁的禮物,但一切在唸過巴菲特的書之後有了改變,我對自己的理念、價值觀有信心,並感到自豪,即便預言家、經濟學家在媒體上講得天花亂墜,我還是可以保持平靜的心,輕鬆自在的享受日子。

儘管巴菲特在投資理財方面帶給我與家人很大的改變,但畢竟是外在成績單,真正讓我崇拜巴菲特猶如自己的信仰一般的原因是他教我們要重視內在成績單,職涯規劃是個經典例子。交大資工畢業後,進竹科存百萬不會太難,但其實我不享受寫程式,也不覺得有成就感。但巴菲特認為人們要做自己喜歡的事情,為崇拜的人工作,跳著踢踏舞去上班。倘若看事情的角度只看未來十年,當工程師領百萬的確不錯,但把視野拉大到未來四十年時,我為我的短視近利感到汗顏。於是,不管雲端運算前景如何,撰寫APP有多熱門,我決定專注於企業投資,想像在為巴菲特工作,跳著踢踏舞上班!

除了職涯,愛情是另一個巴菲特對我有重大影響的領域,這分兩方面來講,首先,我用巴菲特的方法追到女朋友,我從來不送宵夜,不當司機,只是靜靜地等待機會,當她心情不好或低潮的時候,我才出面關心,為她雪中送炭,很快的,我在她心中的地位脫穎而出,變成她被我吸引,從而變成我的女朋友。第二,巴菲特說,所謂的成功就是你希望愛你的人能夠用你希望愛你的方式來愛你。我很喜歡這句話,如果未來獲得的名與利,不能使得我在意的人更愛我的話,那其實是一點意義都沒有的。

結論,我覺得很幸運能夠找到一個崇拜的對象,巴菲特不只改善了我與家人的投資成績單,更豐富了我空虛的內在心靈。

Warren Buffett is my spiritual mentor

Warren Buffett is the richest man in the world, and his value investment is famous all around the world. This is what most of the people know about him and I was no exception. I always read and buy his books from the commerce and investment categories in the book store. Until one day, I felt so annoyed by the problem of future career planning that I walked to the spiritual and inspirational area, and saw Buffett’s biography and his advice to young people. Through continuously repeating Buffett’s words, my mood calmed down, and I felt just like breathing. In the boundless huge crowd, amazingly, someone’s beliefs and values are so similar to mine, and he is the richest man in the world! As a result, Warren Buffett brings me lots of confidence and calm, particularly in the areas of investment, career ,and love.

First of all, Warren Buffett made himself doing investment just like managing with the company; he gave the listed company an intrinsic value, and compared it to the stock price. If the intrinsic value is lower than the stock price, then he will buy the share and hold it for decades long. In the past, I was not interested in stocks. I felt pissed-off that people chase after craze shares, bought them in, and sold them out all day long. I don’t know that my belief which is similar to that of Buffett could help me become a billionaire. Things have changed after I read Buffett’s book. I felt confident and proud with my beliefs and values. Even though economists gave an exaggerated account of the future economy, I can still hold my calm mind and feel relaxed when thinking about the future.

Although Buffett brought me and my family many changes in investment, it is external report after all. The real reason that makes me worship him just like he is my religion is because he taught me to pay attention to internal report, and career planning is a classic example. I came in the first place of NCTU computer science & information engineer graduate school, and after I graduate, getting packages of one million in Science Park is at my fingertips. Even so, I don’t really enjoy writing programs and don’t feel any sense of achievement. Buffett believes that people should do what they like, work for someone who they worship, and tap dancing to work. If we consider futures only in five years, it is pretty good to earn millions by being an engineer, but if we extend the vision longer to fifty years, I feel deeply ashamed for my short sight. As a result, no matter how the prospect of cloud computing is, how popular the mobile device’s application is, I decided to focus on business investment, imagine myself working for Buffett, and tap dancing to work!

In addition to career, love is another important area that Buffett made influence on me, and it can be separated into two aspects. First, I use Buffett’s strategy to successfully chase my girlfriend. I never deliver midnight snack, never be a driver, but just quietly waiting the chance. Only when she is in bad mood or at low ebb, I will show up to care about her, and send her charcoal in snowy weather. Soon, my position in her heart stands out in a crowd. The situation changed. She was attracted by me, thereby becoming my girlfriend. Second, Buffett said “If people get to my age and they have the people love them that they want to have love them, they’re successful.” I like this words very much, if any reputation or profit I gain in the future can’t make more people love me sincerely, those are meaningless at all.

In conclusion, I felt very lucky to have someone to admire. Buffett not only elevated me and my family’s financing situation but also enriched my hollow inner world.

2012年10月2日 星期二

思考策略考上交大資工所乙組榜首(五)


第四隻魔鬼:先守後功,才能百戰而不殆

考古題分析得差不多後,2月要上戰場了,要注意什麼嗎?讓我引用孫子兵法第四篇的一段話: "孫子曰:昔之善戰者,先為不可勝,以待敵之可勝。不可勝在己,可勝在敵。"

我的理解:懂得作戰的人會先建構不被敵人打敗的基礎,再等待打敗敵人的機會出現。不被打敗的條件是自己可以決定的,打敗敵人的機會是敵方決定的。

由於考試其實是自己寫自己的,最後大家再來比較,而不是像棒球一樣,大家正面對決,算是簡化版的戰場,但是只要把考卷以及出題老師想像成是敵人,一樣可以apply孫子兵法。

思考策略考上交大資工所乙組榜首(四)


第三個魔鬼:每個題目都有它配得的時間與順序(內在價值),若付出成本過大(ex本益比30倍),就算這題價值20分(ex台積電),也不算好的投資

12月報名完成後,1月份全面進行分析考古題工作,以上一篇軟體設計為例,我們目標當然是分數越高越好,但是拚高分可能帶來的風險是猜錯時會倒扣總分,這時可以用賽局理論的賽局樹來做分析

賽局理論簡介

由於人類的相當不理性,讓我覺得賽局理論的實用性應該遠遠低於理論分析出來的結果,不過由於接下來畫的賽局樹參與者只有我一個人,而我要不要理性的讓分析結果成為事實是我可以控制的,所以我們就來分析吧~


2012年9月26日 星期三

思考策略考上交大資工所乙組榜首(三)

大家知道Kobe在幹嘛嗎? 也許中場時間到,他正要走下場休息

第二隻魔鬼是選組!以我方最強的狀態去打敵人最差的狀態

7月份訂好作戰策略後,以高效率持續提升實力後,到了12月,報名的日子來了,交大資訊聯招共有五個組,產生七種考科組合,分布在四堂考試中,早上兩堂A與B,下午兩堂C與D,不同組別有各自的選考組合,該如何選組呢?

思考策略考上交大資工所乙組榜首(二)


大家認識他嗎? 他是Kevin Youkilis,魔球策略下的典型人物,打擊姿勢怪異,但是上壘率很高
第一隻魔鬼:你是在培養實力,還是在準備考試?

簡單介紹魔球的故事,關於運動家隊,總經理想要贏球,但是招牌球星都被大市場球隊挖角,在預算有限的情況下,如何贏球? 想法是:要贏球 -> 要得分 -> 要上壘 -> 只要會上壘的球員都是我們想要的好球員 -> 全明星? -> 買不起 -> 會上壘而且便宜的球員才是我們買得起的球員

明星球員不只是會上壘的球員,而是全能的球員,但我們買不起,不過我們可以買雜牌球員,但是他們很能上壘,儘管他們有其他缺點(速度慢or守備差or姿勢怪異...等等),甚至是道德缺憾也無妨,重點是他們便宜,而且會上壘。

重點歸納:

  1. 資金問題(籌碼不足)
  2. 以洋基隊1/3的花費打進季後賽(超高投資報酬率)
  3. 雖然進了季後賽,但只是會上壘不足以打敗明星隊伍,拿下總冠軍(當不了第一名)