如果今天我要買進一位台大書卷獎的學生,該如何評估同學的價值?
假設1:
同學每年可獲得獎學金1萬元,四年後念碩班,每年可賺6萬元,兩年後出社會,每年可賺
100萬元
假設2:
我都把錢放在銀行,利率2%
則同學的內在價值為:
// 1萬/1.02的原因是由於我今年的一塊錢,到明年會變成1.02元,那麼明年的一塊錢,現在的價值就是1/1.02 == 0.98元,所以明年同學賺給我的1萬元,現在值1萬/1.02元。
假設上述公式加總為X,於是我們拿X與市價相比,若市價低於X,代表同學的價值被低估,則買進,並且我可以把市價代入X,看看原本的1.02變成多少,假設變成1.05,代表我用市價買下同學所得到的預期報酬率。
上述公式的缺點在於萬一同學根本沒唸碩班,甚至也沒去工作,在家當家庭主婦的話,此公式就變成笑話一則了,所以對於獲利模式會變得公司,我們買進後不敢太放鬆,只敢在墾丁度假,以防萬一。
倘若有次期末考前一天,同學因為吃麻辣鍋,第二天拉肚子,成績一落千丈,因而市價大跌,但我們知道同學不會always考前吃壞肚子,所以我們大力買進,然後去墾丁度假,曬太陽。
倘若有天台大進了全球排名前10名,因而所有台大同學的股價皆大漲,但我們知道同學的獎學金並沒有因此變多,所以我們賣出持股,然後去墾丁度假。
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如果我要買進一位公立學校的老師,願意付多少錢?
假設1:
老師今年40歲,每年可賺80萬
假設2:
我是一位成大附近的包租公,每年的投資報酬皆有10%
則老師的內在價值為:
倘若市價低於X,我們就把市價代回X,假設得出分母為1.15,則我們將考慮把資金從房地產轉到老師身上,因為每年的投資報酬率將從10%上升到15%
上述公式的風險在於?
答案:沒什麼風險...除非老師自己決定不幹了,對於這種獲利模式不會變的公司,我們買進之後很放鬆,可以去遙遠的馬爾地夫海邊度假
假設新生兒人數創新低,則股價應聲大跌,我們就大力買進,然後去馬爾地夫的海邊曬太陽
假設公務員18%被取消,因為非公務員的人心情都很好,所以股價大漲,我們就大力賣出,然後去馬爾地夫曬太陽。
2013年2月22日 星期五
2013年1月17日 星期四
巴菲特是我的精神導師及偶像
巴菲特是我的精神導師及偶像
巴菲特是世界首富,它的價值投資法聞名全世界。這是大部分人對他的了解,我也不例外。我總是在書局從商業和投資類別讀跟買他的書,直到有一天,我因為未來生涯規劃的問題,實在是很煩惱,於是晃到了心靈勵志區,看到了巴菲特的傳記以及他給年輕人的忠告。經過不斷複誦他說過的話,我的心竟然平靜下來了,我覺得就像是在呼吸一樣,在這茫茫人海,竟然有人的理念和價值觀跟我這麼相近,而且還是世界首富!因此,巴菲特帶給我了自信和平靜,尤其在投資、職涯和愛情三方面。
首先,巴菲特以經營一間公司的心態做投資,他會賦予上市公司一個內在價值,並以此價值跟股價做比較,等到內在價值低於股價時,買進並持有數十年。以前,我對股市一點興趣都沒有,對於人們追求熱門股,整天買進賣出感到嗤之以鼻,也不知道我心中跟巴菲特如此相近的理念、價值觀是可以讓我成就億萬富翁的禮物,但一切在唸過巴菲特的書之後有了改變,我對自己的理念、價值觀有信心,並感到自豪,即便預言家、經濟學家在媒體上講得天花亂墜,我還是可以保持平靜的心,輕鬆自在的享受日子。
儘管巴菲特在投資理財方面帶給我與家人很大的改變,但畢竟是外在成績單,真正讓我崇拜巴菲特猶如自己的信仰一般的原因是他教我們要重視內在成績單,職涯規劃是個經典例子。交大資工畢業後,進竹科存百萬不會太難,但其實我不享受寫程式,也不覺得有成就感。但巴菲特認為人們要做自己喜歡的事情,為崇拜的人工作,跳著踢踏舞去上班。倘若看事情的角度只看未來十年,當工程師領百萬的確不錯,但把視野拉大到未來四十年時,我為我的短視近利感到汗顏。於是,不管雲端運算前景如何,撰寫APP有多熱門,我決定專注於企業投資,想像在為巴菲特工作,跳著踢踏舞上班!
除了職涯,愛情是另一個巴菲特對我有重大影響的領域,這分兩方面來講,首先,我用巴菲特的方法追到女朋友,我從來不送宵夜,不當司機,只是靜靜地等待機會,當她心情不好或低潮的時候,我才出面關心,為她雪中送炭,很快的,我在她心中的地位脫穎而出,變成她被我吸引,從而變成我的女朋友。第二,巴菲特說,所謂的成功就是你希望愛你的人能夠用你希望愛你的方式來愛你。我很喜歡這句話,如果未來獲得的名與利,不能使得我在意的人更愛我的話,那其實是一點意義都沒有的。
結論,我覺得很幸運能夠找到一個崇拜的對象,巴菲特不只改善了我與家人的投資成績單,更豐富了我空虛的內在心靈。
Warren Buffett is my spiritual mentor
Warren Buffett is the richest man in the
world, and his value investment is famous all around the world. This is what
most of the people know about him and I was no exception. I always read and buy
his books from the commerce and investment categories in the book store. Until
one day, I felt so annoyed by the problem of future career planning that I walked
to the spiritual and inspirational area, and saw Buffett’s biography and his
advice to young people. Through continuously repeating Buffett’s words, my mood
calmed down, and I felt just like breathing. In the boundless huge crowd, amazingly,
someone’s beliefs and values are so similar to mine, and he is the richest man
in the world! As a result, Warren Buffett brings me lots of confidence and
calm, particularly in the areas of investment, career ,and love.
First of all, Warren Buffett made himself
doing investment just like managing with the company; he gave the listed
company an intrinsic value, and compared it to the stock price. If the intrinsic
value is lower than the stock price, then he will buy the share and hold it for
decades long. In the past, I was not interested in stocks. I felt pissed-off
that people chase after craze shares, bought them in, and sold them out all day
long. I don’t know that my belief which is similar to that of Buffett could
help me become a billionaire. Things have changed after I read Buffett’s book. I
felt confident and proud with my beliefs and values. Even though economists gave
an exaggerated account of the future economy, I can still hold my calm mind and
feel relaxed when thinking about the future.
Although Buffett brought me and my family many
changes in investment, it is external report after all. The real reason that
makes me worship him just like he is my religion is because he taught me to pay
attention to internal report, and career planning is a classic example. I came
in the first place of NCTU computer science & information engineer graduate
school, and after I graduate, getting packages of one million in Science Park
is at my fingertips. Even so, I don’t really enjoy writing programs and don’t
feel any sense of achievement. Buffett believes that people should do what they
like, work for someone who they worship, and tap dancing to work. If we
consider futures only in five years, it is pretty good to earn millions by
being an engineer, but if we extend the vision longer to fifty years, I feel
deeply ashamed for my short sight. As a result, no matter how the prospect of
cloud computing is, how popular the mobile device’s application is, I decided
to focus on business investment, imagine myself working for Buffett, and tap
dancing to work!
In addition to career, love is another
important area that Buffett made influence on me, and it can be separated into
two aspects. First, I use Buffett’s strategy to successfully chase my
girlfriend. I never deliver midnight snack, never be a driver, but just quietly
waiting the chance. Only when she is in bad mood or at low ebb, I will show up
to care about her, and send her charcoal in snowy weather. Soon, my position in
her heart stands out in a crowd. The situation changed. She was attracted by me,
thereby becoming my girlfriend. Second, Buffett said “If people get to my age
and they have the people love them that they want to have love them, they’re
successful.” I like this words very much, if any reputation or profit I gain in
the future can’t make more people love me sincerely, those are meaningless at
all.
In conclusion, I felt very lucky to have someone
to admire. Buffett not only elevated me and my family’s financing situation but
also enriched my hollow inner world.
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